It is now widely accepted that the abnormal global warming we are experiencing is caused not only by a natural climate cycle, but mostly by human activity. However, not everyone links this issue to the increase in the world’s population and its corresponding consumption. Let us remember that in the first half of the last century, the Earth was inhabited by about two billion people (and just over 900 million at the beginning of the 19th century), whereas today, we have exceeded eight billion. This number does not currently seem compatible with the planet’s resources—at least not at current consumption levels and without the discovery of new methods for producing energy without the use of fossil fuels (not to mention the pollution generated by consumer society).
This situation is further amplified by another factor: until the mid-20th century, a large portion of the world’s resources was consumed by about one-third of the population (primarily in the Western world—Europe, the United States, and a few others), while the rest (Africa, India, much of Asia) lived in subsistence conditions. Fortunately, this is no longer the case. A large part of the world now consumes resources at levels that, if not equal, are at least comparable—or at the very least aspires to do so.
Now, let’s look at the positive aspect. In recent decades, there has been a significant decline in birth rates, at least in the most industrialized countries—a trend that has now extended to nations such as China, which until the mid-20th century had experienced constant demographic growth. Today, population growth persists primarily in Africa and some Asian countries, including India.
It is understandable that the decline in birth rates, and the consequent aging of the population—along with the prospect of a significant demographic decline in the not-too-distant future in almost all industrialized nations—worries politicians, who think in terms of workforce size (and in Italy, the sustainability of pensions). However, at this historical moment, population decline should be seen as a positive development. Instead, we witness daily—at least in Italy—roundtables, debates, and legislative proposals aimed at encouraging people to have more children.
From a resource perspective, the ideal demographic scenario would be to reach a global population level significantly lower than the current one and then maintain a steady state, meaning a relatively constant population level. However, this idea is undoubtedly utopian, as it would require a global agreement—something that is unthinkable today and probably will be in the future.
At the very least, we should stop striving for continuous growth, which the planet simply cannot sustain.
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